Global container spot shipping prices have risen to a new high after the end of the pandemic in 2022, and shipping costs for foreign trade enterprises have skyrocketed.
As of July 3rd, the Shanghai Export Container Composite Freight Index (SCFI) was 3326.87 points, marking the tenth consecutive week of increase in the index and a 77.41% increase from 1875.26 points on April 24th before the start of this upward trend.
The US airline is the main force behind this round of price increases.
At the end of April, the freight rate for a 40 foot container from Ningbo to the western United States was about $2900, and to the eastern United States it was about $3900. Since US President Trump's visit to China in May, there has been a significant increase in US shipping prices, accompanied by the bursting of overseas warehouses.
In June, the US shipping space was extremely tight throughout the month, with overbooking and container dumping (containers without reserved space) becoming the norm, and cargo backlog was widespread. In late June, the freight rates from Ningbo to the western United States were close to $6300, and the freight rates for the eastern United States were close to $7500.
With the official implementation of a new round of price increase plans by shipping companies on July 1st, multiple shipping companies have raised the GRI of the US route by approximately $1300 to $1500. At present, market quotations show that the freight rate for a 40 foot container on the US West route is about $7500, and on the US East route it is about $8900 to $9000.
The main driving factor is that the current global 10% temporary import tariff (Article 122) imposed by the United States will expire on July 24th. Industry insiders predict that after the expiration, Trump will raise tariffs through other reasons such as the 301 investigation. The uncertainty of tariff policies has led shippers to rush to transport goods before policy changes.
The freight rates of South American routes experienced a sharp rise from May to June, due to multiple factors such as the increase in import tariffs from Brazil, Argentina and other countries, outdated port equipment, and worker strikes. The short-term surge in sea freight rates exceeded 130%, the full line of cargo space was overcrowded, and congestion in core ports continued to intensify, resulting in a significant extension of the overall turnover cycle of ships.
In order to cope with operational pressure, many leading shipping companies such as Maersk, CMA, and Hapag Lloyd have reduced their schedules to South America. At the same time, in response to the previous peak demand for North American routes, shipping companies have diverted some South American capacity to the US route.
At that time, some foreign trade enterprises gave feedback that "freight rates are almost catching up with the value of goods" and "customers dare not place orders anymore".
By July, the situation had improved. According to the SCFI fare on July 3rd, the South American route (Santos) fare was $7230/TEU, a decrease of $740 from the previous period, a decrease of 9.28%.
The European market also experienced a surge at the end of May, and the imbalance between supply and demand was an important reason for the rise in the European market.
Data shows that in early June, the overall demand in the European market had reached 2 to 3 times the effective capacity. Due to a large number of empty flights in May, shipping companies have accumulated a large pool of rolling and hoarding cargo. However, after entering June, the market's overbooking situation is still severe, and the shortage of cabin space in some alliances is particularly prominent.
At the same time, congestion in major European ports continues to exist. The average waiting time in Nordic ports remains at 1.5 to 2 days; The high utilization rate of Mediterranean port yards in Greece, Spain, and Italy has a sustained impact on the stability of shipping schedules.
After entering the third quarter, the traditional stocking season in Europe gradually began, with an increase in the volume of furniture, home appliances, consumer goods, and machinery and equipment. The utilization rate of some flight seats significantly improved, providing support for the rise in freight rates. In addition, European hub ports such as Rotterdam, Antwerp, and Hamburg are still facing issues such as yard pressure, vessel waiting, and decreased efficiency in inland transportation connections, leading to a slowdown in vessel turnover.
So recently, MSC and CMA have successively released the latest FAK rate announcements, announcing an increase in freight rates for Asia to Europe related routes from July 15, 2026, covering major markets such as Northern Europe, Mediterranean, Black Sea, and North Africa.
But industry insiders believe that European routes are facing greater downward pressure. Due to the relatively abundant supply of transportation capacity, some shipping companies have planned to lower freight rates for European routes in the near future, and the price increase in this round is also significantly lower than that of the US route.
