The Red Sea risks continue to expand: the Houthis claim to have attacked Saudi oil tankers again, and the passage of key waterways is restricted.
The safety situation of shipping in the Red Sea has once again garnered attention. On July 28th, local time, the Houthi rebels in Yemen issued a statement claiming that they had conducted a military operation against a Saudi-flagged oil tanker, "NCC GHAZAL", on the same day. The reason was that the tanker had violated the "maritime blockade" they had previously issued against Saudi shipping. The Houthi side stated that multiple ballistic missiles were used in the operation, forcing the tanker to change its course and return.
According to the Houthis, this is the fourth Saudi-linked tanker to be attacked since they announced the maritime blockade of Saudi ports on July 20th.
However, the relevant information has not yet been independently confirmed by all parties. The UK Maritime Trade Operations Office (UKMTO) reported at the same time that when an oil tanker, whose identity was not disclosed, was sailing near Jizan, Saudi Arabia, the crew heard an explosion, but both the ship and personnel were safe, and no pollution was found. UKMTO did not confirm that the incident was related to NCC GHAZAL, nor did it confirm the identity of the attacker.
Although the details of the incident still need to be further verified, the focus of market attention has shifted from a single security incident to changes in the overall traffic situation of the Red Sea route.
Ship traffic in the Mandeb Strait has seen a significant decline, exacerbating shipping pressure in the Red Sea
According to data from Clarksons Research, from July 25th to 26th, an average of only about 31 ships entered and left the Red Sea through the Strait of Bab el Mandeb each day. In terms of tonnage, this level is approximately 50% lower than the already low average in the second quarter of 2026.
The impact on large tankers is even more pronounced. Steve Gordon, global head of research at Clarksons Research, said that in the past week, only about one very large crude carrier (VLCC) passed through the Strait of Hormuz on average each day, compared to about three per day in the second quarter.
Data shows that after the Houthis took actions against Saudi shipping, the risks in the Red Sea are gradually reflecting in actual ship operation data. For global shipping companies relying on the Red Sea-Suez route, route selection and operational arrangements are facing new uncertainties.
The flow volume in the Strait of Hormuz remains low, putting pressure on energy transportation in the Middle East
Meanwhile, the navigation of ships in the Strait of Hormuz, another globally significant energy corridor, has also been affected.
According to Clarksons Research, during the weekend of July 25th to 26th, an average of approximately 13 ships passed through the Strait of Hormuz each day, marking a decrease of about 90% compared to pre-conflict levels; in terms of tonnage, the decline exceeded 95%.
In the past week, only six VLCCs have passed through the strait, a significant decrease from the normal level. Recently, the daily crude oil transportation volume leaving the Persian Gulf has been around 1 million barrels, far below the level of around 10 million barrels per day in early July, and the pre-conflict level was around 15 million barrels per day.
With the decline in the traffic capacity of two key shipping lanes, the uncertainty surrounding energy transportation has further increased.
The cost of tankers has been pushed up by the risk of detours, and market freight rates have begun to reflect this
If some Saudi crude oil cannot be transported through its original route and needs to detour around the Cape of Good Hope, the shipping distance and operational cycle will both increase significantly.
According to Clarksons' data, the crude oil export volume from the Yanbu Port in Saudi Arabia over the past week was approximately 3.8 million barrels per day. If the relevant cargo needs to bypass the Cape of Good Hope, some of the voyage distances may be nearly twice as long as the original route.
For the tanker market, extended voyage distances imply a decrease in ship turnover efficiency, necessitating more shipping capacity to maintain the original scale of transportation. Currently, there are signs of rising freight rates in the market:
The daily earnings of VLCCs rose by approximately 13%, reaching around USD 145,000 per day;
VLGC spot earnings rose by approximately 24%, reaching around $172,000 per day.
The security risks in the Red Sea and the Middle East are gradually being transmitted to the tanker market through increased voyage distances, capacity utilization, and decreased operational efficiency.
Red Sea risks shift from security incidents to long-term operational challenges
Over the past two years, the Red Sea crisis has primarily impacted container shipping, with numerous vessels opting to bypass the Cape of Good Hope. However, the current escalation of risks targeting Saudi shipping has compounded the issues faced by the market.
Shipping companies need to consider not only ship safety issues, but also whether to continue to navigate, whether to adjust the route, how to bear the cost of detouring, and how fuel, insurance, and additional costs will change.
For international logistics enterprises and export enterprises, the following aspects need to be focused on in the future:
First, whether the ship traffic volume in the Strait of Bab el Mandeb continues to decline;
Second, whether the shipping company will further extend the deviation arrangement;
Third, whether safety risks continue to drive up freight rates, war risk insurance premiums, and related additional costs.
Currently, the latest attack claimed by the Houthis has added new uncertainties to Red Sea shipping. Meanwhile, the continuous decline in ship traffic in the Strait of Bab el Mandeb and the Strait of Hormuz indicates that risks in key waterways in the Middle East are gradually affecting the operation of the global shipping network from a security perspective.
For freight forwarders and foreign trade enterprises, what needs to be reassessed in the future is not only the choice of transportation routes, but also the stability of shipping schedules, transportation cycles, cost changes, and supply chain risk management.
