The shipping industry is in crisis: two of the world's most important shipping routes are paralyzed, one because of the climate crisis and a war crisis.
The MandeStrait is at the junction of the Red Sea and the Gulf of Aden. If the Suez Canal is the most critical channel in the world, the MandeStrait is the gateway to this channel
The worsening of the Red Sea conflict through Suez, coupled with flight restrictions in Panama, would be a "catastrophic blow" for global shipping.
According to Destine Ozuygur, head of operations at the Danish maritime data analysis agency eeSea, the proposed loop is expanding as more ships avoid the two important routes.
"Since there is no sign of easing on the Panama Canal and no sign of easing in the conflict between Israel and Hamas, traffic between the trans-Pacific and Asia-Europe trade routes through the Cape is expected to increase significantly in the coming weeks."Ozuygur representation.
Currently, the number of ships willing to wait for strict restrictions on the Panama Canal has fallen sharply in recent weeks. The drought has forced the Panama Canal Authority (ACP) to cut the number of navigable vessels, causing a large number of vessels to cross through other longer routes, which is now about to unfold on the Suez Canal.
According to eSea, 43 container ships will be diverted from the Panama Canal in the coming weeks, with nine of them confirmed to pass past the Cape of Good Hope rather than via the Suez Canal.
In addition, 22 container ships are planned to change their regular routes and bypass the Suez Canal.
Ozuygur Said: " If you add the nine vessels that originally passed through the Suez Canal but now were diverted through the Cape of Good Hope, the total will reach 31."
According to a carrier contact, the shipping carrier operations are used to planning the voyage in advance, and only bad weather and port congestion need to be adjusted. They are now in an "unstable state", and the route selection is "changing every hour".
"Sometimes there is great uncertainty in knowing if the captain knows where the ship will go."The contact added," This also means that the expected arrival time (ETA) is constantly changing and, of course, delays in the customer's supply chain."
For example, if a ship sailing from China to Rotterdam does not go through the Suez Canal but takes the Cape route by about 3,500 nautical miles. At an average speed of 17 knots, the Dutch port will be about nine days longer, consuming an additional 1,000 tons of fuel in the process.
Meanwhile, the THE Alliance's decision to divert its three Asian-US East routes to the Suez Canal is under constant scrutiny.
On December 6, Herberot had said that it had decided to change the routes of these services through the Suez Canal, given the further reduction in the number of daily traffic allowed through the Panama Canal in January.
However, a number of merchant ships have been attacked recently, and the Houthis have made it clear that any ship is the target and have begun indiscriminate attacks on merchant ships in an attempt to prevent global trade from passing through the Strait of Mandee. This poses great danger for Red Sea shipping, prompting THE members to review the decision.
In fact, in the THE Alliance's new service network adjustment for 2024 released on November 13, the shipping company noted that its trans-Pacific Asia-US East route will be "affected by the navigation of the Panama Canal".
Source: Shipping network
